The Possibility of Faithless Electors Flipping the 2024 Electoral College Vote

The recent controversy surrounding the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election served as a reminder of the intricate and sometimes contentious processes involved in securing victory in a highly polarized political environment. The question of what would happen if faithless electors switch their votes to the opposing candidate has remained a topic of speculation. This article explores the possibility of such an event occurring during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, delving into the legal framework, historical precedents, and potential outcomes.

What is a Faithless Elector?

A faithless elector is an elector who does not fulfill their duty to cast their electoral votes for their pledged presidential candidate. Unlike candidates who win the popular vote, electors are largely loyal to their party and their chosen candidate, as they are often handpicked for their strong support of the candidate. However, there have been rare instances where electors have chosen to deviate from their pledges, leading to legal and political turmoil.

Historical Context and Precedents

The phenomenon of faithless electors is not unprecedented. According to PolitiFact, faithless electors have disrupted the electoral process numerous times in U.S. history, though none have significantly altered the outcome of an election. A notable example is the 2000 Florida recount, where less than 0.01% of the votes created a deadlock, prompting a constitutional crisis. In 2016, a handful of electors cast votes for Bernie Sanders and Warner, but these did not change the final tally.

Current Electoral Standoff

As of November 8, 2024, the electoral votes stand at 290 for Biden and 214 for Trump. To declare victory, Trump would need 270 electoral votes. Let's assume that Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska (each with 16 electoral votes) flip to Trump. That would give him a total of 248 electoral votes, with a decisive gap of 42 votes short of the necessary 270.

For Trump to secure the presidency through faithless electors, 21 Democratic electors would need to switch their votes to him, leaving 270 votes for Biden. Alternatively, 270 votes could be withheld from Biden, resulting in an automatic tie and a special vote in the House. In such a scenario, even if only 21 electors switch sides, the outcome would still be largely determined by the composition of the House, which currently leans Republican.

Legal Framework and State Laws

According to the Supreme Court, states can pass laws to penalize or replace faithless electors. Several states, including Arizona, California, and Colorado, have laws prohibiting faithless electors from voting for candidates other than their pledged candidate. Other states, such as Illinois and New York, have more lenient laws, allowing cast votes to be counted as originally pledged.

The table below summarizes the current state-by-state standing for Biden and any relevant laws:

State Electoral Votes State Law on Faithless Electors Arizona 11

Forbids

California 55

No penalty, vote counted as cast

Colorado 9

Forbids

Connecticut 7

No law

District of Columbia 3

No penalty, vote counted as cast

Delaware 3

No law

Hawaii 4

No law

Illinois 20

No law

Massachusetts 11

No penalty, vote counted as cast

Maryland 10

Forbids

Maine 3

Forbids

Michigan 16

Forbids

Minnesota 10

Forbids

Nebraska 1

Forbids

New Hampshire 4

No law

New Jersey 14

No law

New Mexico 5

No law

Nevada 6

Forbids

New York 29

No law

Oregon 7

No law

Pennsylvania 20

No law

Rhode Island 4

No law

Virginia 13

No law

Vermont 3

No law

Washington 12

Forbids

Wisconsin 10

No law

Using this information, the electors who would be allowed to vote for Trump are:

California (55) Connecticut (7) District of Columbia (3) Delaware (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maryland (10) New Hampshire (4) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (20) Rhode Island (4) Virginia (13) Vermont (3) Wisconsin (10)

For Trump to secure a majority, he would need 21 of these electors to change their votes. Even if he gains 19, it would still result in a tie and trigger a special House vote where each state casts one vote, significantly favoring the Republican majority in the House.

Conclusion

The potential for faithless electors to flip the 2024 Electoral College vote is theoretically possible, but historically rare. The current legal and political landscape suggests that while it remains mathematically feasible, the likelihood of it occurring is low. As seen in past elections, faithless electors have not significantly altered the outcome, and it is unlikely that they would do so now. Nonetheless, it is crucial to remain informed and prepared for any unexpected twists in the electoral process.