The Plausible Outcomes of North Korea's Unrestricted Missile Program

North Korea's missile program is a subject of global concern. Much of the analysis points to the intentions of Kim Jong-un as being primarily focused on maintaining his own power rather than aiding the people under his rule. This raises questions about the potential outcomes if North Korea were allowed to continue its missile program indefinitely.

Kim Jong-un's Intentions and Regime Survival

The majority of reasonable analysts concur that Kim Jong-un's top priority is to remain in power and avoid regime change at all costs. He is not driven by the welfare of his citizens but is concerned with their ability to challenge his authority. He explicitly does not plan to attack any other nation, understanding that such actions would lead to the immediate downfall of his regime.

Instead, he seeks to keep a solitary and isolated existence, known as the "hermit kingdom," where his regime retains power through the threat of nuclear weapons. This would allow him to maintain a certain level of control over his neighbors with the potential to retaliate if any external threat emerges.

World's Response and Economic Sanctions

North Korea does not need explicit permission to conduct its affairs. However, the world can significantly impact its aggressive nuclear program through:

Economic Sanctions: Imposing economic pressure can limit North Korea's access to resources and funding. This would hinder its ability to develop and test advanced missile technology. Diplomatic Pressure: Engaging in diplomatic negotiations to find peaceful resolutions can also be an effective deterrent.

While these measures are aimed at discouraging North Korea's actions, other unnamed analysts suggest that the country might escalate its behavior unto surrounding nations. For instance, they might pressure neighboring countries into favorable trade deals or seize territory by threatening to destroy any opposing forces.

Testing and Development of Missile Technology

North Korea has been relentlessly developing and testing its missiles to understand their capabilities and limitations. Despite claims that their missiles can threaten major nations, there is little evidence to support this.

They frequently conduct underground nuclear tests in an effort to develop a stable nuclear warhead for their missiles. The parallel testing process has shown that just because something works once, it does not mean it will reliably function every time. The ongoing trial-and-error phase aims to identify the necessary conditions for a successful missile launch with a nuclear payload.

The successful integration of a nuclear warhead onto a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States or its allies remains an abstract goal for now. However, any such test would undoubtedly draw global attention and sanctions, which North Korea seeks to avoid.

Ultimately, while North Korea's missile program poses significant challenges, the international community has mechanisms to mitigate its advancement. Continued pressure through economic sanctions and diplomatic means could help deter further development.