What If the Confederates Won Gettysburg?

The Battle of Gettysburg is often considered a turning point in the American Civil War. Historically, the Union Army of the Potomac commanded by General George Meade emerged victorious, securing a decisive advantage for the Union. But can we imagine the opposite scenario, where the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia under Robert E. Lee triumphed? This hypothetical explores the potential ripple effects on both Lee's campaign and the overall course of the war.

The Military Reality on July 1-3, 1863

In terms of the relative strengths of the two armies, the realities of the battle were quite different from a favorable outcome for the Confederacy. The Union Army of the Potomac (AOP) numbered around 95,000 soldiers, while the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia (AVN) had 75,000 men. Given these numbers, it is improbable for Lee's forces to completely defeat the Union. At best, they could compel the AOP to retreat.

Lee's Delay and Casualties

Furthermore, Lee was not present for much of the early fighting. The Battle of Gettysburg began as a fluke encounter, and when Lee arrived, much of the fighting was already underway. The AOP sustained roughly 9,000 casualties, while the AVN suffered around 6,000 casualties, approximately 8% of their numbers. Due to their longer supply lines, the Confederates found it challenging to replenish their dwindling supplies, ammunition, and other essential materials.

Despite the initial numerical advantage on the first day, this edge vanished by nightfall as the influx of Union reinforcements evened the odds. The chaotic conditions and Lee's absence would have limited the Confederates' ability to capitalize on any gains.

The Second Day and Beyond

On the second day, the fighting remained a closely contested affair. While Lee might have driven the AOP from the battlefield with significant casualties, the Union still held substantial advantages. The total Union casualties were around 10,000, compared to approximately 6,800 for the AVN. By the conclusion of the second day, the AOP had about 19,000 casualties, while the AVN had about 12,800.

Beyond the loss of men, the AVN would have exhausted significant resources. The terrain would have required a high number of casualties to push the AOP off their positions, particularly given the tight quarters. Even if Lee achieved victory, it would come at a great cost, with substantial ammunition and other supplies being used up.

The Decision After Victory or Defeat

Even with a supposed victory, the AVN would face numerous challenges. The Confederate capital of Washington D.C. was heavily fortified and protected by forts and heavy artillery, making it an insurmountable target. Moving south to shorten supply lines would be challenging, and even then, Lee's army might face even greater difficulties.

In the aftermath of a defeat, the situation would not have been much different. The Union's armies, particularly U.S. Grant's and Sherman's, remained in place, battle-tested and ready for further engagements. The city of Vicksburg, which fell on July 4, 1863, was already under siege, making news of a Southern victory unlikely to change the situation.

The Strategic Impact

With the political climate and military strategies being what they were, there was no significant room for maneuver for the Confederates. The elections were still a year away, and Congress was in recess during the July 4th break, providing Lincoln with breathing room.

Furthermore, General Herman Haupt, the Superintendent of the United States Military Railroad, could have easily transported reinforcements from the West to the East, ensuring the Union's continued advantage. Lee, in such a scenario, would have faced a more formidable adversary a year earlier in George Meade, with additional troops and resources under Grant's command.

In conclusion, while a Confederate victory at Gettysburg might have altered tactical outcomes, the overall war dynamics, supply constraints, and strategic advantages held by the Union made a definitive Southern success in this scenario highly unlikely.