Seattle’s Bid for an NBA Expansion Team: Likely Scenario Analysis

The NBA’s expansion plans have been on the horizon for some time now, and as the league seeks new media rights deals, Seattle, among other cities, is seen as a frontrunner for a new team. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated that the league will be open to expansion once they have new national broadcast deals for the 2025 season and beyond.

Current NBA Expansion Plans and City Interest

NBA commissioner Adam Silver’s comments suggest that the league is indeed considering expanding between 2025 and 2030. This timing aligns with the upcoming negotiations for new media rights deals, which are scheduled to begin on March 9th.

Seattle’s Potential for Expansion

Seattle has long been recognized as a prime location for a new NBA team. The city currently hosts three major professional sports franchises (NFL, NHL, and MLB), and the arrival of a fourth franchise (the Seattle Reign in the National Women’s Soccer League) indicates the city’s dynamic sports scene. However, the commissioner’s cautious approach to expansion means that Seattle’s chances of receiving a new franchise may be contingent on various factors.

NBA Owners’ Caution

NBA owners are likely to be wary of rushing into a new expansion team. After the departure of the Seattle SuperSonics in 2008, the city has had to wait for the emergence of a new NHL franchise. This period of patience might continue as owners evaluate the market potential of Seattle and its infrastructure. A new franchise could offer a chance to revive the city’s NBA aspirations with the legacy of the Sonics.

Market Analysis and Franchise Value

The decision on whether to expand to Seattle or relocate a team to the city will also depend on the current financial landscape of NBA teams. With the pandemic hitting many franchises, the League’s financial stability will play a crucial role in dictating the best course of action.

It is my assessment that Seattle could see a new NBA team as early as 2025, or it could face a more delayed expansion timeline as the league assesses financial risks and opportunities. Three key factors will influence the NBA’s final decision:

Financial Viability: Small market teams, particularly those struggling with pandemic-related financial issues, might be more likely to consider relocation. Teams like the Charlotte Hornets (hypothetically, as they were not publicly interested in relocation) and others in smaller markets are under pressure to secure revenue streams from various sources, including potential league relocation. City Support: Cities like Seattle are likely to leverage their infrastructure and fan base to negotiate attractive deals for potential franchises. The Sonics legacy and the current NHL expansion mean that Seattle is well-equipped to host a new NBA team. Investor Readiness: Finding investors willing to meet the franchise’s financial requirements (around $1.2–1.5 billion, according to Forbes) is a significant challenge. Cities like Seattle, Anaheim, Las Vegas, Montreal, Vancouver, St. Louis, Kansas City, San Diego, Austin, and others have the potential to secure such investments.

Potential for New Team or Relocation

Given the current financial climate and market conditions, it is more likely that Seattle may see either a new NBA team or the relocation of an existing team rather than a merger or expansion deal. More specifically, the league might choose one of the following scenarios:

New Team: A brand new franchise could be created, potentially using the Sonics’ legacy to generate fan interest and city support. This approach would benefit both the league and the city, providing a fresh start and potentially leveraging the existing sports culture. Existing Team Relocation: The relocation of an existing team from a struggling market to Seattle could provide immediate financial benefits and enhance the league’s presence in a strong market. Teams like the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic, or even the Anaheim Ducks (if the Clippers choose not to relocate) could be candidates for this scenario. No Team: The NBA might choose to wait and see, preferring to evaluate market potential over the next few years rather than making a hasty decision. This approach could see the league deciding to begin expansions in the 2030s or even later.

Prediction and Conclusion

Based on current figures and ongoing trends, my best guess is that the NBA will add 30 new franchises by 2030, with around 50 teams relocating, and approximately 20 markets remaining without a team. Seattle has a good chance of receiving a new franchise given its dynamic sports environment and the league’s cautious yet optimistic approach to expansion.

For Seattle fans, the coming years will be an exciting time as city officials, arena owners, and potential investors continue to build the case for the return of an NBA team to the city. As the NBA renegotiates its media rights deals, and the league evaluates the financial landscape, the future of professional basketball in Seattle remains a topic of great interest.