Is it Possible to Avoid World War III if Ukraine Surrenders Donbass to Russia?

The recent conflict in Ukraine, particularly over the Donbass region, raises the alarming question of whether a peaceful resolution is possible. Many argue that giving up or surrendering the Donbass could be a viable option to avoid a full-scale war. However, historical precedents and the nature of Vladimir Putin's regime suggest that such a move would not solve the underlying issues and could potentially lead to further aggression.

The Consequences of Surrender

Ukraine, under no circumstances, would agree to such a surrender. Ceding territory to terrorists or violent aggressors is not a reasonable course of action. History teaches us that if such violent demands are met, the aggressor only demands more. Putin's annexation of Crimea serves as a prime example. Each success emboldens autocrats to pursue similar actions, highlighting the importance of standing firm against such demands from the outset.

Prime Minister Winston Churchill once famously said, 'An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last.' This sentiment rings true in the context of negotiations with Russia. If Ukraine were to surrender the Donbass, Putin might very well demand additional territories, such as Odessa, Moldova, or even further expansive regions like Brasov and up to Trieste. Eventually, he might even seek to defend more egregious and strategic territories, including Crimea, at any cost.

Pushing Russian Forces Back to Pre-February 2022 Boundaries

Ukraine could push Russian forces back to their positions at the end of February 2022, which would not amount to a major issue. However, entering Crimea would risk Putin's reaction, even if it were only to defend the stolen territory. The concentration of Russian combat power is primarily in the Donbass and Crimea, making these regions particularly difficult to reclaim.

A more realistic scenario might involve a peace accord that would grant Ukraine nominal sovereignty over these areas with guarantees for Russian speakers. This would enable Putin to claim one of his stated strategic aims, while maintaining the status quo. As for Crimea, it presents a far more formidable challenge. The region is bristling with dug-in military units and home to many pro-Russian inhabitants. The strategic importance of the Black Sea Fleet further complicates matters.

Putin's Betrayal of His Own Words

It is highly unlikely that Putin would ever relinquish Crimea, even if it meant employing nuclear weapons to defend it. His investment in this territory is too significant. Crimea represents Putin's ultimate red line, a part of what he considers Mother Russia. In essence, this means that attempts to regain the area would not be halted by a potential World War III, but rather by his desire to maintain the status quo at any cost.

In conclusion, giving up the Donbass to Russia is not a viable solution to avoiding World War III. The historical and diplomatic precedents indicate that such a move would only embolden Putin further, potentially leading to more aggressive actions in the future. Ukraine must stand firm in its resolve and seek a more comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement to ensure lasting stability in the region.